Weather Forecast (Update)

Amen, looking forward to a break from this unbearably hot and humid summer we've had down here in GA.

Weather channel has it at 85 degrees every day except Friday. Still very low chance of rain though, so I guess double pack the sunscreen!

Fairly typical for those parts that time of year, except a little cooler in the daytime. of course it's too soon to tell.

Except for a coastal system changing things, you can look at St Louis and that weather will be here 3 days later.

The typical patterns are:
1. AVG: like your predictions, maybe 5* warmer
2. COOL: Daytime 70's, breezy, clear
3. STORM: If there's a tropical storm nearby, heavy rain, warm and muggy followed by clear skies and cool dry air
4. HOT: low to mid 90's, muggy, rainstorms in the late afternoon, low 70's, repeat for three days

because the weather changes every 3 days, hope for crappy weather early in the week so we get good weather Fri-Sun.

Wow! If this holds, it's perfect.

Yes, these numbers are wonderful! I'll be even more excited if they are accurate as three weeks out here in VA is a long stretch. I'll check about three days out for a more accurate(?) forecast. As others have previously stated on here, usually the mid-country weather arrives here about three days later. Also, keep an eye on the Atlantic. In the meantime, I've got my fingers & toes crossed for the ^current forecast.

Aw, c'mom guys--I hate to rain on your parade-er-festival, but you can't forecast the weather in Virginia correctly three days ahead of time, much less three weeks!

Any new forecasts regarding hurricanes? 

too soon to tell, but as of this morning, there are no systems in the Gulf, Carribean or off of Africa.

Usually they start off Africa, take a week or so to cross the Atlantic to Carribean or Florida,then track north for a week
to get to Virginia.

So once we get within two weeks of showtime, we'll have a good idea if there is anything to watch. If something has started by then,
no way to know if it will affect us with, at least, rainy weather. Even if one is off Africa, history says it's less than 10% chance of
ending up in the Valley.

That does not account, however, for the "pop-up" storms that form in the Gulf, or around Cuba, and then head north. They usually take
a week from formation to get here; maybe a 25% chance of one of those affecting the valley.

Once a storm passes there is good weather so better to have one the week before, and no need to worry if one was out there now
(other than a full hit in the Valley like Camille).

I'd say that while coastal Virginia gets 2-4 storms a year that affect us, they only hit the Valley hard every 3-4 years.

So at this stage, odds are good we won't have a storm system with rain affecting us.

There are three affects to concern us:
1. damp and some rain--toerable
2. constant hard rain--miserable
3. storm system-- causing cancellation,amking us sad but reimbursed (I hope!)

If you want to keep track of the weather, noaa.gov, intellicast.com, and weather.com all have their predictions which are accurate sometimes and sometimes not. From what I've read, a below-normal hurricane season is expected. This does not mean there will not be any storms which might wreak havoc on land. So, when Lockn' is within a day or so, begin your happy dance or sunshine dance and exude positive thoughts to encourage results comparable to the ^forecast.

Sunshine Daydreams!

Farmers almanac prediction for the area

Right across the mountain from me.  Was 43 at my house this a.m.